Tag
interest rates
50 articles
Economists' Rate Forecasts Miss Year After Year — The Philadelphia Fed Data Shows Why
Philadelphia Fed survey data shows economists' median 10-year Treasury yield predictions have diverged from actual outcomes as a recurring structural pattern, not an occasional outlier.
Dollar Weakness and Fed Pause Drive Emerging-Market Equities and Currencies Higher
A shift in U.S. rate expectations and AI-driven growth optimism pushed EM equities and local currencies higher Friday, extending a week of broad gains.
BOJ Holds at 1% but Warns Inflation Will Exceed 2% Target — Yen Rallies to 157.96
An 8-1 vote to hold masks a hawkish inflation warning, joint currency intervention and a two-year yield at its highest level since May 1995.
PPI at 4.7% Cuts September Hike Odds Below 40% — Nikkei Rises 1.5%
U.S. wholesale inflation fell to 4.7% annually in July from 5.5% in June, pushing September Fed hike odds below 40% and lifting Japanese and Korean equities.
U.S. Home Prices Hit Record $440,600 for 36th Straight Monthly Gain
Median home values climbed for 36 consecutive months through July, keeping shelter inflation entrenched and reinforcing the case for a prolonged Fed pause.
Japan Wholesale PPI Holds at 7.2% in July, Locking In September BOJ Hike to 1.25%
Elevated corporate goods prices and a weak yen are pushing the Bank of Japan toward a September rate increase, analysts say
Australia Home Prices Post Largest Monthly Drop Since 2022 as Downturn Spreads
National property values fell 0.7 percent in July, their steepest monthly decline in two and a half years, as weakness spread from Sydney and Melbourne to Brisbane and Adelaide.
Australia Home Prices Fall 0.7% in July, Biggest Monthly Drop Since Dec. 2022
RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent says softening housing market is tightening financial conditions after three rate hikes and tax policy changes.
RBA Set to Hold 4.35 Percent Cash Rate — Futures Price 58 Percent Chance of Later Hike
Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent face parliamentary and media scrutiny later this week as the Australian dollar slips after six straight weeks of gains.
CPI Holds at 3.4%, Core Slips to 2.5% — Warsh Gets Room to Pause in September
Underlying inflation cooled for a second straight month in July, giving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cover to hold rates steady at the September meeting.
RBA Holds at 4.35%, Bullock Flags Hikes; Swaps Price 50% Chance of November Move
Australia's central bank held its cash rate steady but Governor Michele Bullock said hikes remain possible, pushing three-year yields up 2 basis points and lifting late-2026 hike odds.
Gold Slips From Two-Month High as Fed Rate-Hike Bets Rise
Spot gold fell 0.4 percent from a session peak of $4,434.84 to $4,369.57 as markets awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on Federal Reserve policy.
Indonesia 10-Year Yield Hits 7.45% as BI Eyes 25-50 Basis Points of Hikes
The benchmark yield jumped 10 basis points to its highest level since 2022, with Bank Indonesia expected to tighten further next week to arrest rupiah weakness.
Yen Nears 160 Per Dollar as Intervention Fades; RBA Holds at 4.35 Percent
The yen has surrendered nearly half its intervention-driven gains; the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady but left the door open to further hikes.
Trump Targets Fed Governor Cook; Futures Price 75 Percent Chance of Hike by November
The White House gave Lisa Cook three weeks to respond to mortgage fraud allegations, raising fresh questions about Fed independence ahead of the Sept. 15-16 policy meeting.
Bond Market Rejects Fed's Patience as Oil Surges 6 Percent
U.S. equities posted their worst single-day decline since April 2025 after the Fed held rates steady, sparking a bond sell-off and a 6 percent jump in crude prices.
Gold Clears $4,250 as Payrolls Miss Cuts September Hike Odds to 42%
Spot gold rose past $4,250 per ounce after July payrolls fell 23,000, slashing the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 41.9 percent.
UK Q2 GDP Seen at 0.4% as ONS Data Due Thursday — Rate Cut Pressure Eases
Economists forecast a second straight quarter of expansion driven by services and manufacturing stockpiling, though June activity is expected to have slipped.
June Jobs Miss Locks In Fed Rate Hold Through Year-End, Economists Say
The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 100,000 forecast, but economists say the labor market's stability supports the Fed's current rate posture.
Fed Holds at 3.5%-3.75%, Putting Tokenized Treasury Yields in Focus
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, sustaining the yield floor for tokenized Treasuries and tightening the capital-flow competition against DeFi lending pools.
Equinix Seeks $3 Billion in Bonds as AI Debt Spreads Widen
The data center giant targets investment-grade buyers as credit spreads on technology infrastructure debt widen and duration risk mounts.
BOJ Holds at 0.1 Percent, Raises Growth Forecast — Next Hike Awaits Wage and Inflation Data
Japan's central bank held its policy rate and upgraded its growth outlook as investors, including Amundi Japan's Hiromi Ishihara, await concrete inflation and wage signals.
Builder Confidence Falls to 42 as Home Prices Drop 1.2 Percent
The NAHB Housing Market Index fell six points in July, its third straight monthly decline, as 7.15 percent mortgage rates erode demand and compress builder margins.
Fed Hold Through Q3 2026 Would Weaken Dollar, Push Oil Lower
ING strategists say a prolonged Fed pause signals economic weakness, eroding the dollar's carry appeal and dampening crude demand.
Japan Core CPI at 2.8% Shows BoJ Rate Hike Path Ahead of July 30 Meeting
Eighteen straight months above the 2 percent target have the Bank of Japan set to revise its inflation outlook higher and flag further tightening.
Oil Surge Makes July 31 FOMC Meeting Live as Hike Odds Rise
Bond markets are repricing a 25-basis-point hike at the July 31 Fed meeting after a sharp jump in oil prices reignited inflation concerns across duration-sensitive portfolios.
Unemployment Claims Hit 60-Year Low, Pushing Fed Cut Odds to 5%
Weekly jobless claims fell to a near six-decade low, lifting the two-year Treasury yield 8 basis points and cutting September rate-cut odds to 5 percent.
Fed Cut Odds Collapse as Resilience Narrative Locks In Higher-for-Longer Rates
Futures now price a 68 percent probability the first Fed cut comes no earlier than March 2027, up from 45 percent three months ago, as sticky inflation grinds down easing bets
Bank of Russia Cuts Key Rate 25 BPS to 14% as Drone Strikes Strain Economy
Moscow shifts toward growth stimulus, accepting higher inflation risk as Ukrainian drone attacks erode refining capacity and supply chains.
Charter Launches $3 Billion Debt Exchange to Push Out Maturities
The cable operator offers cash and new 10-year notes for bonds maturing 2027–2030, cutting near-term refinancing risk as higher-for-longer rates persist
Fed Drops Forward Guidance, Two-Year Treasury Yield Jumps 8 Basis Points
The Federal Reserve's shift to data-dependent communication lifted the two-year yield to 4.97 percent and cut September pause odds to 72 percent.
Gold Falls a Second Day as Energy Surge Lifts Two-Year Treasury Yield to 4.96%
Crude oil futures gained 2.1 percent, driving a hawkish repricing in bond markets and pushing the two-year Treasury yield up seven basis points to 4.96 percent.
GIC Posts First Negative Real Return on Record: -0.3% Over Five Years
Singapore's sovereign wealth fund recorded its first negative real return in public history, hit by duration losses in fixed income and late-cycle equity pressure.
ECB Holds Rates, Keeps Further Hikes on Table as Services Inflation Stays Hot
The Governing Council held the deposit rate at 4.00 percent for a second straight meeting, with President Christine Lagarde leaving the door open to additional tightening.
Yen's Trade-Weighted Index Falls Broadly as BOJ Policy Divergence Widens
The yen's broad decline against major trading partners reflects sustained pressure from global interest rate differentials and the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy stance.
5% 10-Year Yield Reprices Cash-Negative AI Firms as Bond Market Shifts
A sustained 5 percent 10-year Treasury yield raises the cost of capital for speculative AI companies, echoing past rate cycles that crippled highly leveraged sectors.
Apple Gains as Nvidia, Amazon Fall on Inflation Data That Delays Fed Rate Cuts
May CPI rose 0.5 percent, above forecasts, pushing back rate cut expectations and hitting growth stocks while defensive plays outperform
Warsh Elected FOMC Chair; Two-Year Yield Rises 10 Bps to 4.95 Percent
President Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee immediately shifts market expectations toward a more restrictive monetary policy stance
Alphabet Drops 2.3%, Amazon Falls 2.1% as Bond Yields Hit Tech Stocks
High-growth technology shares face pressure as rising Treasury yields increase discount rates for future earnings
China Home Price Declines Slow Third Month as Developer Spreads Compress
April data shows new home price drops eased for a third consecutive month, offering relief to global credit markets exposed to developer debt
Treasury Yields Climb Across Curve as Duration Risk Hammers Growth Stocks
Nasdaq falls 1.5 percent as bond market prices higher-for-longer Fed policy, compressing credit spreads and hitting tech valuations
Inflation Surge Hammers Nasdaq 1.5%; Nvidia Down 4.4% on Rate Hike Fears
April inflation data exceeded estimates, intensifying Fed tightening pressure and driving sharp declines in growth stocks
Warsh Hawkish Stance Drives Two-Year Treasury Yield Up 12 Basis Points to 5.15%
New Fed Chair emphasizes firm commitment to price stability, challenging rate cut expectations as short-dated Treasuries sell off
China Q1 Marriages Hit Record Low, Shows Structural Economic Drag
China recorded its lowest first-quarter marriage registrations, indicating demographic headwinds that will weigh on consumption and housing demand
Asia Equity Inflows Accelerate as Duration Risk Drives Rotation from U.S. Tech
Institutional flows target Asian markets as inverted U.S. yield curve and elevated Treasury duration risk prompt portfolio rebalancing
Two-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.98% as Inflation Persistence Kills Rate Cut Bets
Fed funds futures now price 78% chance of June pause as shelter costs and energy prices maintain upward pressure
UOB Q1 Profit Drops 18% As Asia Banks Face Margin Pressure—10-Year Treasury Falls
Singapore bank's earnings miss signals tightening credit conditions across Asia-Pacific, driving flight to quality in global bond markets
DuPont Raises Forecast on Pricing Power, Geopolitical Costs
Company's price hikes offset rising input costs linked to Iran conflict, showing corporate margin resilience amid inflation.
Toyota's EV Push Shows Industrial Policy Split, Bond Markets Watch Inflation
Toyota's electric vehicle push, driven by competition from Chinese manufacturers, shows global industrial changes with effects on supply chains and inflation in developed economies.
Williams Affirms Fed Policy Adequacy — Yields Hold Firm Amidst Economic Uncertainty
New York Fed President John Williams stated the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is appropriately calibrated for current economic risks, signaling a sustained higher-for-longer rate environment.