interest rates

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments on easing pricing pressures cut bond traders' September rate-hike probability to 50 percent, triggering a broad risk-on rally across equities, Bitcoin and commodities.

When the 10-year yield moves 100 basis points, a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon can lose $80 or more—a stark reminder that duration risk is the bond market's core sensitivity.

Bank Negara Malaysia's edited policy statement and 25 basis points of tightening priced into ringgit swaps over 12 months suggest the pause is nearing its end.

Middle East tensions pushed crude higher, stoking inflation concerns and forcing the bond market to reprice Fed expectations upward, dragging gold lower as yield-bearing Treasuries regain relative appeal.

Bund and OAT futures plunge to record lows as term premium surges; ECB rate hike looms over energy-strained fiscal backdrop.

Benchmark 10-year yield crosses 5.10% on hotter-than-expected July inflation; back-end curve pricing sustained higher-rate environment

Two-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.34% as markets repriced Fed policy; MSCI emerging-market index fell 1.4%, its worst day since Aug. 24

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks on Friday shifted bond market pricing sharply toward a September rate increase, with two-year Treasury yields jumping 13 basis points.

Crude surged on Middle East supply fears while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish comments pushed markets to price in a near-term rate increase, steepening the front end of the yield curve.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned that persistent inflation may force a rate increase, pushing September hike probability to 60% from 35% overnight

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish inflation comments at the Central Bank Symposium drove spot gold down 0.5 percent, signaling markets now price in near-term rate increases.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann voted for a 0.25 percentage point rate increase, citing household inflation expectations at 4 percent—double the central bank's target.

The resources conglomerate plans a Rs 10 billion issue to refinance debt as companies lock in borrowing costs ahead of expected RBI tightening.

Australian household consumption rose for a third consecutive month, pushing 3-year bond futures down 7 ticks as markets fully price a Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase by December.

New Fed chair's refusal to signal rate path leaves bond traders searching for clues as 10-year yields test 2007 highs.

Treasury expands debt repurchases, 30-year yield falls to 5.18 percent, and swap markets confirm the intervention is gaining traction

Chinese lenders are now benchmarking bond issuance to the overnight funding rate, confirming the PBOC's June 17 overhaul is reshaping the world's second-largest bond market from the ground up.

The sharpest FOMC dissent in years clusters among rotating bank presidents, not Governors—the structural composition that shapes consensus argues against sustained rate hikes.

The quarterly budget stayed at $38 billion while per-operation ceilings doubled, exposing the gap between what buybacks can accomplish and what markets assumed.

Long-duration yields climb globally as persistent monetary tightening keeps borrowing costs elevated; 10-year U.S. Treasury closes at 4.71% on July 31

Investors slash U.S. and U.K. rate-increase expectations on softer economic data, but long-duration Treasury yields climb as real-money buyers grow selective on entry points

Unemployment rose above consensus, signaling the central bank will pause rate action at its September meeting and ending a tightening cycle.

Low inflation and coal-heavy energy mix let Beijing hold rates steady while peers hike, pulling capital from other emerging markets.

BOJ rate-hike speculation and global inflation pressure drove the benchmark JGB yield to its highest in nearly three decades, with futures falling 0.19 yen to 125.97.

The 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.30% for the first time since 2007 as fiscal fears, oil above $90 and weak Asian data pushed sovereign debt worldwide to generational extremes.

The NAHB index beat a forecast of 33 but has not crossed 50 in more than two years, with diesel prices up nearly 50 percent driving material costs higher.

Spot gold crossed $4,400 per ounce in European trading as weak U.S. retail and sentiment data pushed FOMC rate hike odds to their lowest in months.

July's 0.6 percent retail sales decline and soft inflation data cut September rate-hike probability nearly in half in a week, pushing bullion to a two-week high.

Core PCE climbed to 3.3 percent by June as WTI crude swung from $57 to $113 — futures now price a hike as early as September.

Philadelphia Fed survey data shows economists' median 10-year Treasury yield predictions have diverged from actual outcomes as a recurring structural pattern, not an occasional outlier.

A shift in U.S. rate expectations and AI-driven growth optimism pushed EM equities and local currencies higher Friday, extending a week of broad gains.

An 8-1 vote to hold masks a hawkish inflation warning, joint currency intervention and a two-year yield at its highest level since May 1995.

U.S. wholesale inflation fell to 4.7% annually in July from 5.5% in June, pushing September Fed hike odds below 40% and lifting Japanese and Korean equities.

Median home values climbed for 36 consecutive months through July, keeping shelter inflation entrenched and reinforcing the case for a prolonged Fed pause.

Elevated corporate goods prices and a weak yen are pushing the Bank of Japan toward a September rate increase, analysts say

National property values fell 0.7 percent in July, their steepest monthly decline in two and a half years, as weakness spread from Sydney and Melbourne to Brisbane and Adelaide.

RBA Assistant Governor Chris Kent says softening housing market is tightening financial conditions after three rate hikes and tax policy changes.

Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent face parliamentary and media scrutiny later this week as the Australian dollar slips after six straight weeks of gains.

Underlying inflation cooled for a second straight month in July, giving Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cover to hold rates steady at the September meeting.

Australia's central bank held its cash rate steady but Governor Michele Bullock said hikes remain possible, pushing three-year yields up 2 basis points and lifting late-2026 hike odds.

Spot gold fell 0.4 percent from a session peak of $4,434.84 to $4,369.57 as markets awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on Federal Reserve policy.

The benchmark yield jumped 10 basis points to its highest level since 2022, with Bank Indonesia expected to tighten further next week to arrest rupiah weakness.

The yen has surrendered nearly half its intervention-driven gains; the Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady but left the door open to further hikes.

The White House gave Lisa Cook three weeks to respond to mortgage fraud allegations, raising fresh questions about Fed independence ahead of the Sept. 15-16 policy meeting.

U.S. equities posted their worst single-day decline since April 2025 after the Fed held rates steady, sparking a bond sell-off and a 6 percent jump in crude prices.

Spot gold rose past $4,250 per ounce after July payrolls fell 23,000, slashing the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 41.9 percent.

Economists forecast a second straight quarter of expansion driven by services and manufacturing stockpiling, though June activity is expected to have slipped.

The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 100,000 forecast, but economists say the labor market's stability supports the Fed's current rate posture.

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, sustaining the yield floor for tokenized Treasuries and tightening the capital-flow competition against DeFi lending pools.

The data center giant targets investment-grade buyers as credit spreads on technology infrastructure debt widen and duration risk mounts.