Black representation in the U.S. House of Representatives is projected to decline next year, with at least 60 Black members, including nonvoting delegates, joining the incoming Congress. This marks a reduction from the 63 Black members in the current House, according to an NPR analysis based on Associated Press race calls.
The loss of three Black representatives approaches the record decline of four Black members that occurred after the 1876 election, a period near the end of the Reconstruction era. The potential for a steeper drop emerged after the Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais this year, which weakened protections against racial discrimination in political mapmaking.
But a Democratic surge in the recent midterm elections helped forestall a larger reduction. High Black voter turnout, particularly across the South, secured Democratic victories that partially offset the projected decrease.
Representative Shomari Figures, a Black Democrat from Alabama, exemplifies the dynamics at play. Figures won reelection despite Alabama's Republican-controlled legislature redrawing his 2nd Congressional District to be far more Republican-leaning following the Supreme Court ruling. A lower federal court had previously mandated the district be configured to ensure its Black population had a realistic chance to elect their preferred candidate. The Supreme Court's conservative majority allowed Alabama to implement the new lines, which a lower court had determined were tainted by intentional race-based discrimination and would grant Black-preferred candidates zero chance of winning.
Figures' victory prevented a scenario that befell Louisiana Democrat Cleo Fields, who chose not to seek reelection after a prior Supreme Court ruling reshaped his district.
Other factors contributed to the overall decline, including members retiring or seeking higher office. Voting rights advocates and redistricting experts have warned of future threats to Black representation, pointing to district line redrawings scheduled after the 2030 census as continued vulnerabilities.
