Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, stated on X today, November 11, that the history of the gold ETF offers the “closest analog to bitcoin ETFs and how to think about them.” Balchunas highlighted that the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) experienced an initial surge, briefly becoming the world's largest ETF in 2011, followed by a period where it “saw 40% of investors bail” and took “nearly a DECADE to get back to its that aum high again.” He noted that GLD is now considered a “wildly successful ETF category” and sits at “nearly 3x that initial high water mark.” His central point was that “assets without cash flows run purely on sentiment and it changes.”
The comparison comes as Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen fluctuating investor interest since their launch. Recent Gokhshtein Media coverage reported that Bitcoin ETFs posted a $95 million outflow for a fourth straight day as Bitcoin's price slid. Despite this, some institutions have increased their exposure, with banks adding $306 million to Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q3 filings.
Balchunas's view suggests that current volatility or outflows in Bitcoin ETFs may mirror the long-term journey of gold ETFs, which eventually achieved significant success despite initial downturns. He implies that sentiment-driven assets can endure extended periods of underperformance before reaching their full potential. Investors might consider this long-term perspective when evaluating the future of Bitcoin ETFs.
