Mark Moss, founder of Market Disruptors, told Ciaran Lyons that Bitcoin's halving events have a reduced impact on market cycles. New Bitcoin supply is so small relative to demand that cutting it in half "doesn't really move the needle."
Moss is a financial analyst and commentator known for his macro-economic perspective on markets and digital assets.
His assessment challenges the long-held belief that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is primarily dictated by the halving — a programmed event that reduces the reward for mining new blocks by 50 percent. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, cutting the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Historically, Bitcoin prices have often rallied significantly in the 12 to 18 months following a halving. That pattern is attributed to the immediate reduction in new supply entering the market, creating a supply shock against consistent or rising demand. However, the total circulating supply of Bitcoin now exceeds 20 million BTC, meaning the daily reduction of new supply represents a smaller fraction of the overall market.
Moss contends the cycle has always been more dependent on broader economic forces. He pointed to the global liquidity cycle, the ISM business cycle, and the U.S. presidential cycle as more significant drivers than supply alone. Macroeconomic conditions such as interest rate policies and global money supply exert a greater influence on Bitcoin's price trajectory, potentially overriding the supply-side impact of a halving.
