Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, offered a detailed financial breakdown of Marathon Digital's acquisition of Long Ridge on X on Thursday, November 5, 2026.
Marathon Digital, a major Bitcoin miner, has been strategically acquiring energy assets to bolster its operational capacity.
Sigel's analysis suggests that FERC's approval is a critical step for Marathon, emphasizing the strategic value derived from the acquisition beyond the power plant itself, including land, gas wells, rail, and future expansion potential for AI load.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, offered a detailed financial breakdown of Marathon Digital's acquisition of Long Ridge on X on Thursday, November 5, 2026. Sigel stated, "Huge relief for $MARA. FERC approved $MARA’s Long Ridge acquisition today (EC26-92). Good to see the IMM’s spurious BlackRock/Vanguard challenge get the Heisman. FERC also turned down the request to condition approval on keeping the plant’s output in PJM. Solid. The deal: $1.512B enterprise value for ~0.5 GW of gas generation (485 MW authorized, 505 MW nameplate) and ~$144M of annualized adj. EBITDA, about 10.5x."
Marathon Digital, a major Bitcoin miner, has been strategically acquiring energy assets to bolster its operational capacity. This move follows recent market dynamics where Bitcoin ETFs have experienced some outflows, while Bitcoin's price has shown strength, currently trading at $80,502. Marathon's pursuit of a significant energy asset like Long Ridge aligns with the digital asset mining industry's drive for stable and cost-effective power sources during fluctuating market conditions and increasing energy demands.
Sigel's analysis suggests that FERC's approval is a critical step for Marathon, emphasizing the strategic value derived from the acquisition beyond the power plant itself, including land, gas wells, rail, and future expansion potential for AI load. He calculates that the debt financing the deal costs approximately $123 million annually against $144 million of EBITDA, indicating a manageable ratio. Sigel points to the potential for significant value creation if the site's capacity can be expanded to accommodate 600 gross MW of AI load, explaining why Marathon paid a premium over typical PJM gas plant deal multiples.
“Huge relief for $MARA. FERC approved $MARA’s Long Ridge acquisition today (EC26-92). Good to see the IMM’s spurious BlackRock/Vanguard challenge get the Heisman. FERC also turned down the request to condition approval on keeping the plant’s output in PJM. Solid. The deal: $1.512B enterprise value for ~0.5 GW of gas generation (485 MW authorized, 505 MW nameplate) and ~$144M of annualized adj. EBITDA, about 10.5x. Recent PJM gas plant deals went at about 7x (Talen 6.7x, Vistra 7x, NRG 7.5x), which would put the plant alone at ~$1.0B. MARA is paying ~$0.5B more for the land, gas wells, rail and expansion option. MARA keeps ~$900M of Long Ridge debt in place and needs ~$610M of cash, which the $600M of BTC-backed loans it drew in August are meant to cover. I’d expect it to close by the Nov 30 outside date. Debt math: ~$1.9B of MARA’s $2.3B convert stack is zero coupon, so total post-close cash interest is roughly $140M: ~$58M on the Coinbase and Two Prime loans, ~$76M on Long Ridge’s own debt (the 8.75% notes alone are $52.5M) and ~$7M on the converts. Judging the deal on its own: the debt that finances it (Long Ridge’s ~$76M plus ~$46M on the new BTC loans) costs ~$123M a year against $144M of EBITDA, about 1.2x. The upside is expansion. MARA talks about 600 gross MW of AI load at the site. That appears to include the existing 200 MW of grid load (on top of the 505 MW plant that sells into PJM). AEP’s 2025 filing proposed reconductoring the feeder serving a customer at the Hannibal station to go from 100 to 200 MW, for about $0.5M, targeting about nine months from PJM first seeing the need to in-service. The station ties into four 138 kV lines and once fed a 540 MW smelter, which is encouraging, but nothing is signed. To get from 200 to 600 MW, AEP would likely need to add a second feed or upgrade lines, or MARA would build on-site generation, which raises turbine availability questions. I can’t find a public study of how much more the grid connection can carry. AEP Ohio’s data center tariff also requires large customers to pay for at least 85% of contracted capacity for up to 12 years, if it applies here. Still, an energized site with fuel, land and a 138 kV hub may beat waiting in ERCOT’s queue. It’s unclear whether the Hannibal buildout goes through the Starwood JV, where MARA would keep up to 50%. That will decide how much of the 600 MW upside MARA owns. Each 100MW developed at a 7% cap rate and $2M/MW rent could be $1.5B+ of value creation, so it's a big variable and explains why they paid ~$500M above the 7x multiple for the extra capacity. Next catalyst, possibly at closing or just after: a signed lease.”
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