Bitwise raised its long-term Bitcoin price forecast to $1,599,766 by 2036, implying 34.3 percent compound annual growth from Bitcoin's September 30 reference price of $83,557.
The updated base-case scenario represents a jump from last year's $1.3 million target by 2035, which anticipated 28.3 percent annualized growth. Bitwise attributed the increase to expanding addressable markets and deepening institutional confidence in Bitcoin's trajectory.
Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise and a co-author of the report, said, "Bitcoin will likely remain a volatile asset with sharp downturns, but all signs point to these swings weakening as institutional adoption deepens." The firm's analysis follows Bitcoin's 53 percent decline from its October 2025 high to its June 2026 low.
Bitwise's base case assumes Bitcoin captures 25 percent of a combined gold-and-Bitcoin store-of-value market expanding from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. The model also allocates Bitcoin 1 percent of a projected $303.5 trillion institutional investment market, with smaller contributions from other use cases.
Interviews with 15 institutions—pension funds, endowments and sovereign wealth funds—revealed that existing holders maintained allocations through a 50 percent market decline between October 2025 and April 2026, with several increasing positions.
Bitwise projects institutional allocations reaching one to five percent over the next decade, translating to $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in new Bitcoin purchases. The forecast distributes value across Bitcoin's 21 million supply limit, including unmined coins and those presumed lost. Bitwise pegged Bitcoin's circulating supply at 20.1 million.
In a bear scenario, Bitcoin reaches $130,686 by 2036 on 4.6 percent annualized growth, assuming Bitcoin captures only 2.5 percent of the store-of-value market. A bull case projects $3,667,911 by 2036—46 percent annual growth—if Bitcoin claims 50 percent of store-of-value assets and 5 percent of institutional investment allocations.
Risks include technological disruptions such as quantum-computing threats to Bitcoin's security architecture and regulatory reversals that could derail adoption momentum.
