OKLO'S nuclear strategy is attractive in theory but risky in practice. The company signed a 12-gigawatt master power agreement with Switch and a prepayment deal with Meta. But Oklo's shares have fallen 80 percent over the past year for good reason: the company still lacks a commercial reactor license and faces severe fuel supply constraints.
The Department of Energy approved a Nuclear Safety Design Agreement for Oklo's Aurora powerhouse, a necessary but insufficient step. Without NRC approval for commercial operation—which could take years—these customer contracts remain contingent. For equity investors, Oklo is a speculative bet on execution. Until the license lands, treat the company's stock as binary and illiquid.
Established nuclear operators are taking the real money. Vistra and Constellation both inked 20-year power purchase agreements with Meta. Both companies operate multiple NRC-licensed reactors. Vistra's six reactors are fully operational; Constellation's fleet is similarly de-risked. These are the stocks to own if you're bullish on AI power demand. Vistra and Constellation have already solved the regulatory problem and can deliver power immediately.
In the supply chain, Centrus Energy and Cameco are essential plays. Centrus finalized a $900 million Department of Energy contract to produce high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU)—the fuel that next-generation reactors need. The company also locked in a supply agreement with X-energy. Centrus holds an NRC license and is capital-intensive, but this deal is a real catalyst: government funding for HALEU capacity is a multi-year tailwind.
Cameco, the world's largest uranium producer, executed contracts covering approximately 230 million pounds by end of 2025 and landed a long-term supply agreement with India's Department of Atomic Energy. Cameco operates under Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission licenses and faces mining and project execution risks, but its supply franchise is improving.
BWX Technologies, a tier-one defense contractor with decades in nuclear hardware, announced more than $1.4 billion in Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program contracts. These are government-funded, long-duration commitments—among the most defensible cash flows in the industrial sector. BWX operates licensed facilities in the U.S. and Canada and manages cost and delivery risk on massive programs routinely, so execution risk is low relative to newer entrants.
For portfolio construction: own Vistra and Constellation for immediate AI-driven power demand; own Centrus for HALEU supply upside; own Cameco for global uranium scarcity; own BWX for defense-backed nuclear cash flows. Avoid Oklo until it demonstrates commercial license approval—or until its valuation fully prices in a 50 percent probability of failure.
