Democrats enter the midterm elections with a structural advantage, favored to win House control, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. But the survey reveals a constraint on their prospects: voter enthusiasm is cooling, especially when pollsters focus on likely voters rather than all registered voters.
The poll, conducted Oct. 19-20 among 1,289 registered voters, captures a electorate fixated on pocketbook issues. One-third of respondents reported financial hardship in the past year. Four in 10 said their personal finances have worsened. The cost of living ranks as the top concern across all ideological groups.
Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent voter from Arizona who leans Democratic, expressed the pinch. "The economy is at the top of my list right now," Maurice said. "They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for." He cited high food and gas prices as the drag.
Democrats and independents continue to prioritize democracy and democratic norms. Self-described MAGA supporters rank immigration as their biggest concern.
The Marist poll is the first this cycle to apply a likely voter screen—a filter that identifies respondents most probable to vote based on enthusiasm and past voting behavior. That screen matters. Likely voters showed measurably different preferences than the full registered voter sample. They were marginally less likely to disapprove of President Trump and slightly less likely to favor Democratic control of Congress.
Trump's job approval among registered voters stood at 38 percent, with 61 percent disapproving. Among likely voters, his approval ticked up to 40 percent, while 59 percent disapproved. His favorability fared worse: only 37 percent of likely voters held a favorable view, against 59 percent negative.
One finding held firm across both groups: 53 percent of voters, whether registered or likely, said they "strongly disapprove" of Trump's job performance—matching the poll's high-water mark from the previous month.
Democrats held a strong advantage on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party's candidate they would support in their district if the election were held today.
The registered voter sample carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. For likely voters, it is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
