SpaceX shares have climbed nine percent from their $135 IPO price, closing Monday down 0.4 percent.
Bernstein SocGen Group maintained an Outperform rating and raised its price target to $268 from $248—implying 82 percent upside from current levels. The catalyst: SpaceX's aggressive pivot into terrestrial AI compute infrastructure and orbital data centers.
Bernstein projects SpaceX will generate $424 billion in revenue by full-year 2028, up from its prior estimate. That falls short of SpaceX's stated ambition of $500 billion to $1 trillion in annualized run rate by the end of 2027—but Bernstein notes the company doesn't need to hit that bull's-eye to deliver strong returns.
The orbital data center opportunity hinges on Starship reusability. SpaceX expects to launch its first orbital facilities in late 2027 and commence operations in mid-2028. Flight 15 of Starship is imminent; the company plans to catch both booster and ship. Heat shield performance on Flight 14 could enable the first Starship reuse on Flight 16.
Bernstein forecasts terrestrial compute capacity will reach 13 gigawatts by end-2027—up five gigawatts from its prior projection—climbing to 20 gigawatts in 2028. The firm assumes pricing above the $30 to $50 per watt range seen in recent deals but has kept assumptions below SpaceX's own expectations, leaving room for upside if the company hits its targets.
Capital intensity is real: Bernstein estimates $35 billion per gigawatt for capacity expansion. SpaceX reported $19.6 billion in capital expenditure for Q3 and projected $35 billion to $40 billion for Q4. CFO Bret Johnsen signaled strong returns, noting new compute deployments are achieving rapid payback at current pricing levels.
SpaceX's enterprise and government connectivity operations are also outperforming Bernstein's prior assumptions, adding material upside to revenue projections.
