Bitcoin closed a daily candle below its 50-day moving average for the first time since August, trading around $80,800 as of Saturday morning. The breach triggered $495.74 million in liquidations across crypto within 24 hours, with 175,527 traders caught, according to Coinglass data.
For two months, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average—now near $81,784—had held as strong support on every dip. Friday's close flipped that level to overhead resistance.
President Donald Trump's Friday comments—"we may do another operation against Iran"—rattled markets. The remark echoed "Operation Epic Fury," which began in late February. Equities tanked: the Dow fell 652 points, nearly three of four S&P 500 stocks closed red, and crypto market cap shed $140 billion over the week as crude oil pushed toward $120 a barrel.
Leveraged traders bore the brunt. The single largest liquidation: a $4.77 million Ethereum position on Binance.
Spot investors moved to de-risk hard. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their largest single-day outflow since June on Thursday—$635 million exiting. Blackrock and Fidelity led the selling. ETF issuers continued Friday, with an additional $137.94 million in sales, compounding downward pressure.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen outlined a bearish scenario: a weekly close below $83,000, followed by a Federal Reserve meeting Oct. 28 and a higher-than-expected personal consumption expenditures inflation reading Oct. 29. Oil spiking to $120 would seal it. Cowen said the slide scenario dies if Bitcoin "gets and holds back above $83k." He flagged Bitcoin's failure to hold above its May high and the Nasdaq's eight percent drop, noting "the burden of proof is starting to shift" for bulls.
Volatility is set to spike over the next 10 days: Israel's election Oct. 27, the Federal Open Market Committee decision Oct. 28, and Big Tech earnings.
Not all traders are capitulating. Some are adding to long positions, treating current levels as a buy zone.
