Bitcoin's Bull Score Index crashed from 80 to 60 since late September—a sharp pivot that Cryptoquant contributor Darkfost flagged Oct. 21. The index, which synthesizes 10 on-chain metrics spanning demand, profitability, network activity and liquidity, now sits at the threshold where positive momentum starts to fray.
The decline marks a dramatic reversal from August's surge, when the index rocketed from 30 to 80 as eight of ten components flipped bullish. That recovery coincided with a price bounce and a rare moment in early October 2025 when both spot and futures demand accelerated in lockstep.
Now the headwinds are clear: fresh capital has stopped flowing in, Bitcoin demand growth has stalled, and short-term holders—defined by Glassnode as anyone holding under 155 days—are underwater and capitulating.
Wallet flows tell the story. During August's recovery, whales holding 100+ BTC accumulated roughly 60,000 bitcoin. But smaller players cratered: wallets holding 1 to 100 BTC dumped 33,000 BTC, while sub-1 BTC holders liquidated 14,000 BTC. That split reveals institutional accumulation colliding with retail panic.
Cryptoquant CEO Ki Young Ju had spotted a different signal in September—rising realized capitalization suggested fresh money entering the market and a textbook early bull phase taking shape. But the Bull Score's subsequent compression suggests that capital influx has now dried up.
At the time of Darkfost's assessment, Bitcoin was trading at $81,345. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 50, reflecting complete market ambivalence.
