Gold fell for a fourth straight session today as West Texas Intermediate crude rallied above $90 a barrel—a six-month high—and reignited inflation fears across fixed-income markets.
The ten-year Treasury yield climbed 7 basis points to 4.58 percent, while the two-year rose 4 basis points to 4.92 percent, steepening the yield curve modestly. Fed funds futures now show an 80 percent probability the Federal Reserve will hold rates at its next meeting, down sharply from earlier expectations for cuts in early 2027.
The dollar index gained 0.3 percent to 105.1, pressuring gold—which moves inversely to both the greenback and yields. Equity markets were mixed: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.0 percent to 52,496, while the Nasdaq Composite was flat at 26,425.
Higher energy costs directly threaten corporate margins and consumer purchasing power. For bondholders, the arithmetic is stark: inflation expectations increase duration risk as the present value of fixed future cash flows shrinks. Investment-grade corporate spreads widened 2 basis points over Treasuries, signaling elevated credit risk perception in a higher-rate environment.
The Consumer Price Index report arrives Nov. 10, followed by the Fed's policy statement on Nov. 15.
