The Kobeissi Letter, a markets commentary publication, reported on Wednesday, October 14, 2026, that trading activity in the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, has reached multi-year lows. The publication stated, "Trading volume in the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, fell to just 22.6 million shares on Friday, the lowest for a full trading day since November 25th, 2005." It further highlighted that Monday's volume dropped to approximately 18 million shares, marking the lowest non-holiday reading since 2003, leading to the 5-day average of $SPY trading activity declining below 30 million shares, its lowest on record.
This observation comes as major indices like the S&P 500 closed today down 1.1% at $7,719, with the Nasdaq falling 1.9% to $26,693. The broader market is seeing a mix of activity, with attention on upcoming Q3 earnings reports. For example, Waste Management's Q3 earnings approach October 27, while Medpace faces an earnings test with its 35x forward multiple. Comcast's Q3 earnings will also reveal the success of its wireless strategy.
The Kobeissi Letter's analysis implies that the current low volume periods could precede market pullbacks, citing similar patterns in December 2024, February 2025, and August 2026. This suggests that the current market state of consolidation might be a precursor to further volatility or price adjustments, warranting close attention to market breadth and investor participation levels in the coming weeks.
