Tesla reported third-quarter 2026 vehicle deliveries of 486,000 units and 464,000 units produced, alongside 13.7 GWh of energy storage deployment.
The company is building Terafab, a joint Tesla-SpaceX AI chip complex in Texas using Intel technology, to control semiconductor supply for robotics, autonomous driving and energy systems. This addresses a critical dependency: Tesla's autonomy platforms and Optimus robot require custom AI hardware that third-party fabs cannot guarantee at the scale and speed Tesla demands.
Tesla secured $30 billion in new unsecured credit facilities this week to fund growth and capital-intensive projects. The company has projected over $25 billion in capital expenditures for 2026.
The financial math hinges on execution. Tesla's internal forecast projects $165.9 billion in revenue and $14.4 billion in earnings by 2029—requiring 17 percent annual revenue growth and an earnings increase of $10.6 billion from the current $3.8 billion level. At these numbers, fair value is $395.57, roughly 5 percent upside from current levels near $377.81.
But downside risks are material. Conservative analysts model 7.7 percent annual revenue growth and $4.4 billion earnings by 2029, citing tariff headwinds, slower product ramps and regulatory friction. Terafab's profitability depends on scaling robotaxi volumes at pace—if autonomy deployment lags or regulatory approval stalls, capital spent on the fab becomes a drag on returns.
