Over 6 million bitcoin, representing 31.2 percent of the circulating supply, currently sit behind public keys visible on-chain. This exposure creates a potential vulnerability if advances in quantum computing or artificial intelligence undermine Bitcoin's underlying cryptography.
The proportion of exposed supply has increased approximately 5 to 6 percent above 2023 lows data. Rafael Schultze-Kraft, Glassnode co-founder, noted that exposed supply increased by 222,000 BTC, valued at $18.2 billion, since May. During the same period, total Bitcoin supply grew by only 64,000 BTC.
Centralized exchanges accounted for 123,000 BTC of the recent increase. These platforms now hold 1.79 million BTC behind visible public keys, with exposure varying sharply: Coinbase shows 10 percent exposed, while Binance's exposure stands at 83 percent.
Other major holders display wide variance. Fidelity holds approximately 375,000 BTC with only 2 percent exposed. Grayscale's exposure is 49 percent, Revolut's 99 percent, and Robinhood's 100 percent. Holdings managed by the U.S. U.K. and El Salvador governments show no exposure under Glassnode's methodology.
Public keys become visible through address reuse or by appearing in specific bitcoin output types, including early pay-to-public-key outputs and Taproot implementations. A sufficiently capable quantum computer or mathematical breakthrough could theoretically allow an attacker to derive private keys from exposed public keys.
Ethereum researcher Justin Drake recently warned the industry to enter "bunker mode" for these threats, arguing that AI could potentially discover a shortcut to breaking wallet cryptography "in months, not years" in a worst-case scenario, even before quantum computers become fully operational.
Bitcoin currently trades at $81,467, down 2.3 percent over the last 24 hours.
