Latino men who helped elect President Donald Trump in 2024 are now turning against him, a reversal that could decide which party controls Congress in the midterms.
Trump's economic approval among Hispanic men has cratered to minus 49 points, according to recent polling data. In fall 2024, he held an 11-point edge over Vice President Kamala Harris on the economy within this group. The swing reflects deepening anxiety about jobs, wages and inflation.
The shift matters. Latino men, part of a 36 million-strong Hispanic voting bloc that swung toward Trump last year, abandoned a decades-long Democratic lean to back the president. Now that coalition is fracturing.
Democrats see an opening. The party watched nonwhite voters stay home in 2016 and defect to Trump in 2024, eroding its House majority. If Hispanic men flip back to Democrats—or simply stay home—the party could reclaim seats in competitive districts across the Southwest, upper Midwest and Sun Belt.
Both parties are intensifying outreach to working-class Hispanic voters, recognizing they are no longer a reliable Democratic constituency and no longer a confirmed Trump bloc either. The group's electoral behavior will likely determine control of the House.
