BRASILIA — Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will face President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a presidential runoff election on October 25 after exceeding expectations in Sunday's first-round vote.
With nearly all votes tallied, Bolsonaro secured 47 percent to Lula's 45 percent, contradicting pre-election surveys that had predicted the incumbent leftist president would lead by approximately three percentage points.
Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia: "Brazil wants change and I am very happy with the results." He declared an end to the era of Lula's Workers Party.
President Lula, speaking to supporters at a Sao Paulo hotel, acknowledged the result and said he had expected to win outright in the first round. "Starting tomorrow, we begin a new campaign," he said, promising to highlight his accomplishments to voters.
The campaign has centered on the cost of living, corruption and personal security. Both candidates skipped major television debates, limiting policy discussion.
Robert Muggah, cofounder of the Igarape Institute think tank, said pollsters underestimated Bolsonaro's support. "The pollsters missed badly," Muggah said, predicting runoff polls showing a dead heat would also underestimate Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
On Sunday morning, Bolsonaro told journalists in Rio de Janeiro he was counting on protest votes from those opposed to Lula who might otherwise support another candidate.
Thaise Lima, a 41-year-old lawyer in Sao Paulo, said her primary goal was removing Lula's Workers Party from office. "I don't think Flavio is the best candidate, but I might decide to vote for him in the next round," she said, noting she preferred psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury.
Fernando Tempel, a 49-year-old management consultant, said he voted for Bolsonaro despite initially planning to support Romeu Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state.
Political analyst Rafael Favetti said the protest vote likely foreshadows the runoff dynamics. "While this should benefit Flavio Bolsonaro now, his growth potential in the second round drops precisely because that support has already been front-loaded," Favetti said.
Despite improvements in inequality and unemployment rates, Lula has struggled to gain broader voter support. Many Brazilians continue facing high living costs, heavy household debt, and increasing crime and gang activity.
