Chinese-owned factories have acquired an estimated 343 immersion deep ultraviolet (DUVi) lithography systems by early 2026, according to a report published in late September by the Centre for Technology & Statecraft, a Washington research group.
Approximately 270 of these systems are ASML's advanced NXT:1980i models, accounting for roughly 80 percent of the advanced DUVi tools installed in Chinese fabs as of the first quarter of 2026. China began importing NXT:1980i systems in 2023.
DUVi systems are critical for producing advanced AI chips at the 7-nanometer node and high-bandwidth memory (HBM). ASML, a Dutch company, controls 99 percent of the global DUVi market, with Japan's Nikon holding the remaining 1 percent.
Advanced lithography represents the most effective long-term chokepoint for constraining China's AI chip output. China is not projected to commercialize these systems at scale until the mid-2030s, but continuing imports at the 2024-2025 pace could allow Beijing to accumulate enough lithography capacity within five to ten years to narrow or eliminate the U.S.-allied advantage in AI chipmaking.
Current U.S. Dutch and Japanese export controls ban EUV systems and ASML's most advanced DUVi tools but permit acquisition of DUVi systems capable of producing chips like those used in Huawei's AI products. The Centre for Technology & Statecraft advocates for a policy shift: a China-wide ban on all DUVi exports, complemented by controls on spare parts and servicing.
The U.S. and its allies have already restricted semiconductor manufacturing equipment exports to China since 2018, with the Netherlands blocking ASML's EUV system shipments in 2019. Controls expanded progressively from 2022 to cover DUVi systems and other critical equipment. As of 2026, the U.S. holds an estimated 50-fold advantage in AI computing power production.
A full DUVi ban would secure the U.S. advanced AI chip production advantage for at least a decade and ensure that the next wave of advanced fabrication facilities is built in the United States and allied countries rather than in China.
