Crude oil flows from the Middle East have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, representing 98 percent of pre-conflict levels, according to JPMorgan Chase Co. analysis published Sept. 29. Refined product shipments reached 3 million barrels per day, or 58 percent of pre-war volumes. The combined figure for crude and products stood at 89 percent of 2025 average levels on a 10-day basis.

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have almost returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels per day, driven primarily by Saudi Arabian exports. JPMorgan analysts, including Natasha Kaneva, cautioned that increased crossings should not be read as improved safety conditions. The volumes instead reflect industry adaptation to sustained risk.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. offered a similar assessment in a Sept. 29 note estimating that oil exports from the Gulf, including clandestinely moved volumes, recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the previous week. This aligns with the 2025 average. Goldman noted a clear divergence: Iranian exports have fallen while other Gulf producers increased shipments. Saudi Arabia's estimated exports more than doubled in September, rising above their 2025 average.

Saudi Arabia has also restored approximately half the flows on its East-West pipeline, the cross-country conduit that feeds its Red Sea ports and sustained damage in early September.

The rebound comes eight months into the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has escalated tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has rejected Tehran's assertion of control over the strait, implementing a blockade of Iranian ports and assisting transits by other nations' vessels.

Estimates for Hormuz transit volumes diverge sharply among officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that 17 million barrels of oil per day "sometimes" transited the strait. TotalEnergies SE Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne offered a more conservative estimate of 10 million barrels per day for crude and products combined. The spread between these estimates—7 million barrels per day—suggests significant uncertainty about actual flows or methodology.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose about 14 percent in September and was on track for a third consecutive monthly gain. Front-month November futures traded 0.8 percent higher at $103.43 a barrel on Sept. 29.