Angie Nixon won Florida's Democratic primary last month with a platform the state's Republican establishment sees as a gift: Medicare for all, taxing billionaires, and a membership card from the Democratic Socialists of America.
Now she faces the brutal math of a general election in a state that has turned sharply red. Republicans hold a 1.5 million registration advantage. No Democrat has won a statewide race since 2018. And Nixon is running against Republican Attorney General Ashley Moody, who has $11 million in her war chest to Nixon's roughly $1 million.
Nixon's path to victory depends almost entirely on what political scientist Susan MacManus, who has studied Florida elections for decades, calls the "forgotten voters." She needs to poach Republicans, turn out her own base, and capture nearly 30 percent of Florida's independent and minor-party voters—a group that has grown increasingly skeptical of Democratic messaging.
The socialist label is her steepest climb. In South Florida, where Cuban and Venezuelan immigrants fled communist and socialist governments, the DSA affiliation carries weight. When NPR asked Nixon to describe herself, she sidestepped: "I label myself as a Democrat, as a former single mom, as someone who was determined to help." Primary voters didn't flinch. General election voters may.
Gov. Ron DeSantis' relentless "war on woke" messaging over eight years has cemented Republican dominance. Jessica Edwards, a Florida voter, put it bluntly: a winning candidate needs to "be loud" and "say directly what you want to happen." She wasn't describing Nixon's approach.
MacManus said the race will turn on turnout—Nixon's grassroots ground game against Moody's cash advantage. In a state this red, that is nearly the whole ballgame.
