finds that the U.S. Dollar Index poses a weaker threat to Bitcoin than traders commonly assume. Over the past 90 trading days, Bitcoin and the DXY show a correlation of -0.41, implying the assets tend to move in opposite directions.
The DXY, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of major currencies including the euro and yen, has climbed 2.6 percent since Sept. 9 and reached a two-month high of 101.69 on Tuesday. A stronger dollar typically increases repayment costs for dollar-denominated debt, leading borrowers to reduce exposure to riskier assets.
Bitcoin has stalled since Sept. 21, pulling back to the $83,000-$84,000 range from a high near $87,500. Yet the damage from dollar strength has been limited. CoinDesk calculated an R-squared value of 0.17, indicating that the DXY explains only about 17 percent of the daily fluctuations in Bitcoin's returns.
Shorter-term data shows more volatility. The 30-day correlation registered -0.45, heavily influenced by Aug. 19 and Sept. 3, when Bitcoin jumped more than 5 percent as the DXY declined. Excluding those two days, the 30-day correlation drops to -0.19.
Since Jan. 2020, the 90-day correlation has averaged -0.14 and has even turned positive at times, peaking at +0.22 in Nov. 2024.
Bitcoin also demonstrates little correlation with U.S. Treasury yields, as CoinDesk previously reported. The loose connection to both the dollar and yields supports viewing Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier that moves largely on its own internal market drivers rather than external macroeconomic factors.
