Canada faces a long-term housing supply deficit requiring between 187,000 and 238,000 new homes annually through 2036. This deficit persists even as overall housing demand slows across the country, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
Mathieu Laberge, CMHC's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Housing Insights, discussed this outlook at the 2026 Canadian Finance Conference. He spoke about the speed and scale needed to bring new housing to market.
Despite the persistent supply deficit, CMHC's Summer 2026 Housing Market Outlook forecasts slower economic growth and softer housing demand. This shift is expected to lead to lower home prices, fewer housing starts and easing rental markets.
Housing remains difficult to find and afford across Canada's North, even as demand has slowed in those regions. The national trend of construction falling short of meeting demand continues to shape the housing future.
CMHC anticipates home sales will recover gradually through 2028. However, these sales volumes are expected to remain below levels observed over the last decade, indicating a prolonged period of market rebalancing.
Ownership market conditions are projected to differ across Canadian regions. Prairie markets, for example, are expected to maintain high sales levels despite the national slowdown.
CMHC's Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Fall 2025 Edition, details trends in housing finance, borrower preferences and market risks. It provides in-depth data on lender types, insurance, interest rates, arrears and funding flows.
The annual Rental Market Report offers detailed insights into rental market dynamics in major Canadian cities. This report highlights key trends in new construction, resales and rentals.
Economic forces, including savings rates, mortgage renewals and the adoption of digital tools, are shaping the Canadian mortgage market. Changing homeownership trends also influence these dynamics.
