TAIPEI — Taiwan's multiparty democracy, three decades old since its transition from dictatorship, faces mounting internal divisions as China prepares legal and political instruments for coercion.
Since the 2024 election, partisan feuding has hampered government function even with the Democratic Progressive Party controlling the presidency and executive branch. The infighting compounds external pressure from Beijing.
China's 2005 anti-secession law provides a legal framework for takeover, targeting what it calls "diehard Taiwan independence elements." The law prescribes death for charges including "splitting the state."
Chinese officials have called President Lai Ching-te a "traitorous rat." The DPP, winner of the past three presidential elections, emphasizes Taiwan's separate identity and rejects Beijing's territorial claims.
Beijing's stated goal is to allow only officials who "support the reunification of the country" to hold office if Taiwan becomes part of the People's Republic of China. Hong Kong offers a precedent: after 2019 anti-government protests, Chinese authorities demanded local officials take loyalty oaths or face removal.
Chinese officials have also discussed re-education campaigns for a post-conquest Taiwan. Surveys consistently show a large majority of Taiwan's 23 million people favor some form of self-rule, suggesting millions could be compelled into such programs.
Taiwan's world-leading semiconductor industry, which produces more than 90 percent of the world's most advanced chips, faces similar risks. A Chinese takeover could trap skilled engineers in fabrication plants if they attempt to leave.
China's stated preference is Taiwan's surrender without military conflict. Such an outcome would force Xi Jinping and his subordinates to choose between consolidating control through repression—visible to the world—or allowing Taiwan's democratic freedoms to persist, a scenario Beijing appears unwilling to accept.
Taiwan's democracy, which replaced the dictatorship established after Chiang Kai-shek's 1949 retreat, represents a potential deterrent to such measures. Taiwan needs additional elements to give Beijing pause. China currently expresses no fear of Taiwan's armed forces, though the DPP is advancing their overdue modernization.
America, Taiwan's traditional security partner, is viewed as unreliable, complicating the island's position as it confronts both internal political divisions and persistent external threats.
