Goldman Sachs lowered its delivery forecasts for Tesla, Inc. citing weakening sales trends across its primary markets. The bank cut Q3 deliveries to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000 and Q4 to 475,000 from 515,000—both reductions that signal pressure in China, the U.S. and Europe.
Goldman's Q3 estimate now trails the 456,000-vehicle consensus, a bearish signal. The Q4 forecast of 475,000 vehicles still sits above the 462,000 consensus estimate, making the fourth quarter a critical inflection point for Tesla's demand narrative.
Monthly and weekly sales data from these major markets are tracking below Goldman's initial expectations. The revision hinges on whether Tesla's Model Y refresh and typical seasonal demand can reverse the trend.
If deliveries recover in Q4 with broader availability of the Model Y L, the case for temporary weakness holds. If they remain subdued despite new product availability and seasonal tailwinds, Tesla faces a harder task explaining its long-term growth trajectory—and would signal structural demand issues.
With the core vehicle business under pressure, Tesla's investment thesis increasingly depends on autonomy. The Full Self-Driving (FSD) system and Cybercab robotaxi are now central to the growth story.
Tesla has begun offering Cybercab robotaxi services in Austin, Texas, marking a transition from concept to commercial deployment. However, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating whether Tesla properly self-certified the steering wheel- and pedal-free vehicle as compliant with federal safety standards. Regulatory hurdles could slow scaling of this new revenue stream.
Continued weakness in the core vehicle business, combined with slow FSD and Cybercab adoption, prolongs the transition cost for investors and tests the viability of Tesla's pivot away from traditional auto sales.
Institutional holders sent mixed signals in Q2. The number of hedge funds holding Tesla stock fell to 116 from 123 in Q1, according to Monkey's database. BAMCO increased its stake by 5 percent to 12.5 million shares, while D. E. Shaw reduced its position to 4.3 million shares.
Short interest stood at 74.2 million shares as of Aug. 31, or 2.35 percent of the public float, with bearish bets up 7.27 percent from the prior period and a two-day cover ratio. Tesla shares traded at $364.27, down 0.5 percent.
