Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, forecasts Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by next year, citing government over-leverage and liquidity shifts as primary drivers.
Sigel made the projection Friday on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." He highlighted fiscal stress as the core thesis: governments are "over indebted," and policymakers lack political will to address the imbalance. If liquidity eases, Sigel said, it would "turbocharge for Bitcoin," pushing price higher.
The Treasury bond buyback program has already triggered significant short covering—a bullish signal for Bitcoin holders. Volatility has compressed 50 percent over four years, another structural shift favoring accumulation. Sigel observed that traders are "really paying up" for puts versus calls, reflecting caution but not conviction in downside.
Institutional demand is active. Sigel confirmed ongoing discussions with financial advisors and sovereign wealth funds reveal consistent buying.
VanEck also anticipates stablecoin expansion, driven by regulatory dysfunction. Sigel flagged the "remarkable irony" that lawmakers remain deadlocked on stablecoin rules even after the GENIUS Act became law last year—the banking lobby is now trying to "retrade" the deal.
The U.S. Senate this week failed to advance the CLARITY Act, which would establish regulatory lines between the SEC and CFTC for digital assets. That legislative gridlock leaves market structure unresolved and creates friction for institutional entry, but also underscores the macro tailwinds Sigel is betting on: fiscal desperation and liquidity pressure will drive Bitcoin regardless of regulatory clarity.
