India is tracking its weakest monsoon season in nearly two decades, with rainfall deficits already at 43 percent below normal. The India Meteorological Department forecasts the season will finish approximately 15 percent below the long-term average—the driest monsoon since 2009.
El Niño conditions—warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific—are the primary driver. This year's strong El Niño, a phenomenon historically correlated with suppressed Indian monsoon rains, has delayed the season's arrival and is expected to sustain weak conditions through July, according to Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan.
The structural threat is acute: nearly 50 percent of India's farmland depends entirely on monsoon rainfall. A prolonged deficit forces farmers into costly irrigation, placing additional stress on groundwater reserves already under pressure from extraction. The Ministry of Agriculture has identified 111 districts with irrigation coverage below 25 percent as high-priority zones vulnerable to harvest failure.
Paddy farmer Gurpreet Singh in Punjab said, "We can manage a short dry spell," but warned, "The real worry is if the rains remain below normal through the season."
The government response includes an El Niño Monitoring Cell and Crop Weather Watch Group, with state-level control centers tracking rainfall, crop conditions and sowing progress. But contingency planning cannot offset structural rainfall collapse.
The monsoon's impact extends beyond agriculture. The June-September rains replenish reservoirs and groundwater supplies that millions depend on for drinking water. Weak rainfall and rising temperatures also disrupt livestock, fisheries and forests. Approximately 260 million people—over 45 percent of India's workforce—work in farming and related sectors.
Sunita Narain, director general of the Centre for Science and Environment in New Delhi, noted that this El Niño is unfolding as climate change effects compound the weather phenomenon's impact.
