NEW DELHI — India, the world's most populous country, has seen its total fertility rate fall to 1.9 children per woman, below the 2.1 replacement rate necessary for long-term population stability.
This summer, Indian school textbooks will warn against the risks of too few babies, marking a reversal from decades of government messaging that encouraged smaller families. In the 1960s, school buildings displayed slogans advising parents to have "Two or three children, enough." By the 1970s, officials oversaw the sterilization of millions of young adults, often poor and many forcibly.
Several Indian states now show fertility rates comparable to wealthy European nations. Tamil Nadu, an industrialized southern state, and West Bengal, a populous eastern state, each record a TFR of 1.3, matching Finland. Maharashtra, the large western state that includes Mumbai, has a TFR of 1.4, comparable to Norway.
India's population will continue to grow from its current 1.45 billion, as demographic shifts take time to affect overall figures. But the number of births has already decreased by one-fifth from its peak in 2001. In Tamil Nadu, 1,200 schools closed last year due to lack of pupils. Children increasingly attend school without siblings.
The government has expressed concern that India may age before achieving significant economic prosperity, following a path similar to China, where the population has begun to decline after peaking. Some politicians have started offering financial incentives to encourage higher birth rates.
India's transition reflects a broader global pattern. More than two-thirds of all countries now have fertility rates below replacement level. Middle-income countries such as Brazil, Iran, Thailand and Turkey have maintained TFRs well below replacement for years. Sri Lanka records a TFR of 1.3 and Tunisia 1.6. Morocco's fertility rate has fallen below replacement, and Nairobi, Kenya's capital, is approaching that point.
Demographers point to falling child mortality rates as one explanation. As fewer children die in infancy, parents need not have as many to ensure some reach adulthood. Girls' education is also a key factor, providing greater autonomy over life decisions.
