LONDON — Copper prices fell below $14,000 per metric ton yesterday, the sharpest daily decline since July 23, as London Metal Exchange inventories surged by 20,025 tonnes—the largest single-day increase since April 7.
The influx directly unwound a months-long supply squeeze. On-warrant stocks now stand at 123,100 tonnes after six consecutive sessions of gains, driven by deliveries that had been held back by tariff-related arbitrage flows into the U.S.
The curve showed immediate relief. The cash/3M copper spread, the market's primary gauge of near-term physical tightness, compressed to $248 per tonne from recent extremes. The tom-next spread—reflecting overnight borrowing costs for metal—also retreated sharply after reaching levels not seen since the 2021 copper squeeze.
Speculative positioning shifted in tandem. The latest Commitments of Traders Report showed net long positions fall by 6,340 lots to 53,914 lots, ending a two-week rally in positioning despite higher prices beforehand.
The moves reflect a sharp recalibration of squeeze risk. Investors who had built positions on expectations of continued physical scarcity are now paring exposure as the supply shock dissipates.
