Anxiety about Islam is widening across Europe, with half the population in several countries viewing it as incompatible with Western values. The sentiment has taken root in the United States, where Trump administration officials warn of "civilisational erasure." This perception is harming transatlantic relations.
In Europe, the populist-right Alternative for Germany won 44 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6, its largest state-election result. The party campaigned on warnings of "Islamisation" and pledges of forced deportations. The same weekend in Britain, hundreds of individuals occupied Dover, chanting "Stop the boats" and "Christ is King." In France, Marine Le Pen's proposal to ban Islamic headscarves from public places has support from 60 percent of voters.
In the United States, the concern centers less on terrorism, as after Sept. 11, 2001, and more on what officials describe as an internal Islamic plot to take over Europe. Trump administration officials have explicitly warned of "civilisational erasure" for the continent.
However, Europe does not face an Islamic takeover. There is no evidence of mass radicalization among Muslims or erasure of European culture. Claims of "no-go zones," creeping sharia law, or demographic "great replacement" are unfounded.
The actual threat to Europe stems from extremism fueled by Islamism—the belief that the state should enforce Islamic principles—and right-wing paranoia amplified by social media. The problem is worsened by political responses from the left, which often denies real threats posed by Islamism, and the center, where politicians stay silent to avoid accusations of racism.
Demographic data easily refute extreme fears. Even following record migration from majority-Muslim countries, Muslims constitute just 6 percent of Europe's population, which exceeds 500 million. While new arrivals typically have higher birth rates, fertility rates converge with native-born populations within two generations, contradicting claims of rapid demographic shifts.
Most Muslim immigrants seek to integrate into their new homes rather than impose the norms they left behind. Their children often achieve greater academic success than their parents. In Britain in 2021, 67 percent of Bangladeshis who took standard tests enrolled in university by age 19, compared to 38 percent of white Britons. Many Muslims participate in mainstream politics, including Britain's home secretary and London's mayor.
Polling among British Muslims found minimal resistance to women working, indicating alignment with other Europeans on significant social issues.
Some Muslims do hold illiberal views. An openly gay imam was killed in South Africa. In Britain, 52 percent of Muslims say homosexuality is wrong. The view is more prevalent among young Muslims, with 41 percent of those under 35 holding it compared to 25 percent of older Muslims.
While segments of the Muslim population hold views at odds with broader European liberal values, the narrative of impending "civilisational erasure" or takeover lacks support in demographic data or integration patterns. The true threat to European democracies lies in political and social polarization fueled by unfounded fears.
