Republicans are increasingly worried that the North Carolina Senate race is falling out of reach. GOP nominee Michael Whatley is struggling to close a significant gap against Democrat Roy Coo the state's current governor, in public polling.
A poll released Thursday found Cooper leading Whatley by 11 points among likely voters. The persistent deficit has fueled anxiety within the Republican Party.
These concerns became evident during the GOP midterm convention in Dallas. Side conversations, closed-door meetings, and on-stage speeches highlighted growing unease among party members.
Senator Rick Scott of Florida, a former National Republican Senatorial Committee chair, said North Carolina was "probably one of the hardest states on the map." Scott cited the challenge of running against an incumbent governor in an open seat.
During a private lunch with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the Senate Leadership Fund, an attendee described the North Carolina contest as "tough." Thune identified Alaska, Maine, and Michigan as top targets for the party's Senate efforts, signaling a shift in focus from states where the path to victory appears less clear.
One GOP pollster present in Dallas stated that North Carolina and Georgia are now seen by most Republicans as "off the map," with Michigan and New Hampshire emerging as "real flip opportunities" closer to November. This strategic shift makes it challenging to justify continued spending in North Carolina and Georgia, the pollster said. Resources may be reallocated to contests with a higher perceived chance of success.
President Donald Trump acknowledged the race's difficulty during his convention speech. He said North Carolina presented "a little more difficult case" but reiterated his support for Whatley, his former handpicked Republican National Committee chair.
The White House announced Trump will travel to Gastonia, North Carolina, next week for a campaign rally with Whatley. A person close to the Whatley campaign said Trump's visit "will be a good motivator for our voters." The campaign believes Cooper has reached his maximum support and that North Carolina voters "tune in late and break late."
The North Carolina Senate contest has been notably subdued this cycle, overshadowed by higher-profile races in states like Texas, Maine, and Michigan. The outcome could determine control of the Senate. Some in Washington, across both parties, previously viewed North Carolina as a safe Republican seat.
