The Democratic Republic of Congo is systematically reducing cobalt production in favor of cop a shift driven by structural economics and government supply controls.
The DRC supplies 70 percent of global cobalt. Cobalt prices peaked above $77,000 per metric ton in the post-Covid rally, then collapsed to $22,000 per metric ton in 2025—a nine-year low. The DRC government responded with annual export quotas of 96,600 tonnes for 2026 and 2027, enforced with strict deadlines: Q1 allocations unused by June 30 revert to a national strategic reserve.
Glencore, the largest operator in the DRC, cut cobalt output 39 percent year-over-year in Q1 2026, producing 5,800 tons. The company relied on existing inventory to meet quotas while leaving surplus cobalt in the ground to avoid extraction costs.
In the same quarter, Glencore increased copper production 19 percent. This "copper-first" strategy exploits a structural advantage: cobalt is a byproduct in 99 percent of cases, sourced from copper or nickel mining. Miners can shift processing focus without abandoning deposits.
Copper demand is rising sharply. AI data centers, electrification, and electric vehicle growth are all drivers. Simultaneously, copper supply is tightening due to declining ore grades and mine closures, creating a favorable price environment relative to cobalt.
The effectiveness of DRC's quota and reserve mechanisms remains uncertain. Cobalt prices have not rebounded despite reduced exports, suggesting either that the market oversupply is structural or that producers are hedging against future demand weakness.
