Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas maintains an Overweight rating on SpaceX, setting a $300 price target that implies more than 70 percent upside from current levels.
Jonas believes the market is underestimating the scale of SpaceX's Louisiana ambitions. SpaceX announced plans to build a $100 billion Starbase launch facility in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana, designed to support thousands of launches annually and significantly expand Starship capacity.
Jonas forecasts SpaceX will build 15 total launch pads at the site. SpaceX currently operates three pads and expects three more fully operational by the end of 2027. Assuming each pad conducts two launches per day, Jonas's model shows only eight pads are necessary to meet his 2040 forecast for Starship launches—suggesting substantial future growth potential beyond the initial facility ramp.
On valuation, Jonas argues SpaceX trades at an attractive 10 times sales with 70 percent growth and 25 times EBIT with 113 percent growth based on his fiscal 2028 forecasts. He contends the market has not fully priced in the earnings power of sustained Starship cadence.
Shares recently traded around $136, down 1.2 percent on the announcement, after reaching over $225 following the company's public debut. The stock has faced post-IPO pressure typical of early-stage exits within 12 months of going public.
Key downside risk: If Starship reuse and launch frequency lag behind plan, the Louisiana facility could become underutilized, undermining Jonas's $300 thesis. Cadence execution is the linchpin of the bull case.
