The U.S. housing market recorded its lowest buyer count on record in July, with an estimated 966,752 prospective purchasers active nationwide, according to Redfin data. That figure dropped 2.5% from June, while the seller count fell only 0.3% to 1,462,921—its lowest point in a year but still nearly half a million above the buyer total.
The gap between sellers and buyers hit approximately 496,000 nationally, pushing the seller surplus to 51.3%—approaching the all-time high of 51.8% reached in December and widening from 47.9% in June. Redfin senior economist Asad Khan attributed the deterioration to demand erosion rather than new supply. "Buyers are dropping out faster than sellers, giving the buyers who remain more options and more negotiating power," Khan said.
Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in a year during July, compounding affordability pressures already building from economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Fewer buyers qualified or chose to enter the market, while sellers—many locked into prior mortgage commitments—held their positions at a slower pace.
Redfin classified 39 of the 49 major metropolitan areas it analyzed as buyer's markets, where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%. The seller surplus widened in 34 of those 39 markets between June and July alone.
Miami posted the widest imbalance, with 154% more sellers than buyers in July, up from 134% in June. Nashville ranked second at 151%, rising from 135%. Houston came in third at 130%, up from 114%, followed by San Antonio at 116% and Austin at 112%. Seattle's surplus jumped from 46% to 65%, and Fort Worth's climbed from 67% to 86%.
The Sun Belt imbalance stems from specific pressures. Miami and Nashville are absorbing new construction and investor-owned inventory accumulated during the pandemic-era housing surge. Rising insurance premiums, homeowners association fees and climate-related risks in Miami have added cost pressure atop elevated mortgage rates. Houston, San Antonio and Austin continue to receive large volumes of newly built homes as buyer demand cools, leaving sellers with limited negotiating leverage.
Only six of the 49 metro areas tracked remained seller's markets, where buyers outnumber sellers by more than 10%. Nassau County, New York, posted the largest seller advantage at 36% fewer sellers than buyers. Newark, New Jersey, followed at 21%, with Providence, Rhode Island, at 17%, Milwaukee at 15%, and both New Brunswick, New Jersey, and Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, each at 13%. Annual home-sale price growth averaged 4.2% across those six seller's markets—a concrete reminder that supply scarcity still drives prices where it persists.
For homebuilders with significant Sun Belt exposure—D.R. Horton, Lennar and PulteGroup—the data confirms what their order books have been showing: demand in high-supply markets is under real pressure. D.R. Horton and Lennar both carry heavy Texas and Florida exposure, two of the weakest regions in Redfin's July rankings. Incentive spending and mortgage rate buydowns have been the primary tools these builders use to move inventory when buyer traffic falls; those costs rise as the buyer pool shrinks further.
The six remaining seller's markets are concentrated in the Northeast, a region where land constraints and limited new construction historically keep supply tight. That geographic bifurcation—Sun Belt oversupply versus Northeast scarcity—is the defining split in U.S. residential real estate right now, and the July data shows it widening, not stabilizing.
