NEW YORK — The U.S. national average price of gasoline has risen above $4 per gallon for the third time this year, marking the first instance of prices holding at that level past Aug. 12 in any prior calendar year, according to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan.
The current average compares to $3.14 per gallon a year ago, a 27 percent year-over-year increase. Gasoline prices have traded at or above $4 per gallon for 103 days — 46 percent of the year.
Geopolitical tensions tied to the war in Iran, which began in February, have kept global energy prices elevated. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has tightened supply further, removing a critical artery for seaborne crude flows.
President Donald Trump said last week that gas prices could climb if the war continues, while also predicting oil prices would fall sharply once the conflict resolves.
The administration has moved on several fronts to boost supply: waiving the Jones Act, which governs maritime transport of goods between U.S. ports; issuing an emergency order allowing the sale of higher-ethanol gasoline blends; and releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Those reserves recently fell to their lowest level since early 1983.
Trump has also publicly pressured Chevron and Exxon Mobil to cut prices, expressing dissatisfaction with their second-quarter profits earlier this month.
With fewer than 100 days until the midterm elections, the administration faces growing pressure to stabilize fuel costs. Consumer spending remains sensitive to energy prices, which directly compress disposable income.
For fixed-income markets, the persistence of $4-plus gasoline is a duration story. Energy's weight in CPI keeps headline inflation anchored above levels consistent with a Fed pivot, pushing the front end of the curve higher and widening the gap between short-dated Treasuries and longer maturities. Portfolios carrying extended duration face the steepest mark-to-market exposure as markets continue to price in a delayed easing cycle.
