China has fulfilled its pledge to purchase approximately 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, with state-owned enterprises Sinograin and COFCO completing bulk purchases last week.
The acquisitions satisfy a commitment made under a late-October trade truce between the United States and China. Purchased cargoes are scheduled for shipment between December and May.
Private Chinese crushers have largely remained on the sidelines, continuing to favor cheaper soybean supplies from Argentina and Brazil—a split that raises questions about the durability of U.S. soybean demand from China beyond politically driven purchase targets.
U.S. market share for soybeans in China had fallen to 15 percent from 21 percent in 2024, following four consecutive months beginning last September during which China recorded no U.S. imports during ongoing trade tensions.
Specific purchases included at least six bulk cargo vessels scheduled to load at U.S. Gulf Coast terminals, with a seventh vessel already en route. One ship, Ocean Harvest, is expected to arrive at the eastern port of Zhangjiagang within a week.
USDA export data, which lags real-time market activity, showed China's purchases at just over 8 million metric tons as of Jan. 8. The White House has outlined a broader goal for China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028.
Randy Place, a senior grains analyst at the Hightower Report, questioned whether China would continue purchasing U.S. soybeans after meeting the 12 million metric ton target. Chinese buying, Place said, often stems from political considerations rather than economic ones.
China's food security strategy has driven sustained efforts to diversify its soybean suppliers and reduce reliance on U.S. crops—a trend accelerating since the trade war during President Trump's first term.
China has largely covered its soybean demand through March and is now booking new-crop Brazilian soybeans for loading as far out as August. Brazil is heading toward another bumper harvest, reinforcing its position as the default commercial supplier.
The USDA has modeled only 15 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans into its 2026-27 balance sheet, a conservative assessment of future Chinese demand.
Farmer sentiment on U.S. agricultural exports was mixed in December, according to Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer. Researchers Michael Langemeier and James Mintert reported that only 5 percent of producers anticipated a decline in exports.
