XRP currently trades at $1.012, its lowest price since November 2024, and the Senate's decision to delay its vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act until September is driving the move.
The Clarity Act defines which digital assets fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction. Polymarket odds for the bill passing in 2026 recovered slightly to 22 percent after hitting a yearly low of 14 percent—but that recovery isn't pulling XRP off the mat.
Daily active addresses have climbed since July 21 even as price has fallen. That divergence signals wallets moving tokens to exchanges, the kind of positioning that precedes a retest of key support. Watch the $1 level.
Open interest in XRP derivatives is running 32 percent above where it stood in November 2024, when XRP last traded near $1 and open interest sat at $1.8 billion. That build-up tells you traders are positioned for a large move. The lean is bearish: the Relative Strength Index already broke below 40, confirming accelerating downside momentum.
Spot volume is thin—$1.2 billion, just 1.9 percent of XRP's circulating market cap. A decisive close below $1 could blow that number out fast, pulling in liquidation cascades as market makers unwind collateral.
Data from Santiment shows the seven-day and 30-day moving averages for social volume crossed in late June, signaling rapidly falling social media chatter around XRP. That pattern has preceded sharp price drops for the asset multiple times historically.
If XRP breaks decisively through $1, technical targets point to roughly 35 percent additional downside. A spike in long liquidations would accelerate that move.
The macro setup isn't helping. A hawkish Federal Reserve, low odds for crypto legislation clearing Congress and capital rotating into space and artificial intelligence are all weighing on sentiment.
Bitcoin trades at $63,316, down 0.8 percent over 24 hours. Ethereum sits at $1,864, down 0.4 percent. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registers 29—fear.
