China has not fought a war since a brief border conflict with Vietnam in 1979. That gap in combat experience presents a challenge for Beijing's military planners as they consider potential operations, particularly a forceful seizure of Taiwan.
To close that deficit, China is acquiring battlefield lessons and data from Russia—information Beijing needs to understand modern warfare and integrate current combat strategies into its forces.
Beijing has undertaken a significant military buildup over the past 30 years, substantially improving its capabilities. But an invasion of Taiwan requires high confidence in success, a threshold China has not yet met.
Analysts say China is not currently capable of conquering Taiwan and is unlikely to gain that capability soon. Military technology trends now favor Taiwan and the United States, not China.
Simulations conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense over the past decade have consistently shown China failing to achieve its objective of conquering Taiwan. Those exercises incorporate highly classified systems from both sides, providing a realistic assessment.
Recognition of the threat has prompted action beyond Taiwan and the United States. Japan, the Philippines and other regional powers are working to deter aggression from Beijing.
China can still inflict massive damage on Taiwan with military force even without conquering it. That threat constrains Taiwan's policies, deterring Taipei from declaring independence and compelling occasional political concessions.
Chinese military planners must also contend with Taiwan's geography. Establishing a beachhead is only one part of an invasion; forces would then need to break out and conquer the rest of the island.
Taiwan's government is expanding civil defense training to build a whole-of-society response to potential conflict, aimed at enhancing the island's resilience against an attack.
While China's military capabilities overmatch Taiwan's in raw terms, military doctrine holds that a successful attacker typically needs at least a three-to-one numerical advantage for conquest.
This stalemate has held for roughly 75 years, dating to the Chinese Civil War. Sustaining it depends on a clear-eyed understanding of current military dynamics.
Alarmist assessments that China is rapidly outpacing the United States and will soon prevail in a war for Taiwan can be counterproductive—encouraging Beijing while discouraging combined action by Taiwan and its allies.
Taiwan's economy, valued at nearly $1 trillion, would be removed from the open market and absorbed into China's state-directed model if Beijing seized control by force, while diminishing U.S. influence across East Asia.
