James Talarico, an Austin Democrat, leads Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, according to two recent polls.
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico with 45 percent support to Paxton's 40 percent among likely voters. Talarico has strong backing from independent voters and an edge among non-college-educated voters, a demographic that has consistently favored Republicans in Texas.
A separate Fox News poll also placed Talarico ahead of Paxton, by three points. That survey showed Talarico leading among both independent and Hispanic voters. It also pointed to character concerns and a GOP unity gap as factors weighing on Paxton's standing.
Paxton, a Republican backed by President Trump, has struggled to consolidate his party's base despite Trump's endorsement, which remains popular among Texas Republicans.
Talarico's appeal to non-college-educated voters represents a potential realignment of a demographic that has been a Republican stronghold in Texas.
The TPOR survey also examined undecided voters pushed to choose: 19 percent leaned toward Paxton, 10 percent leaned toward Talarico and five percent remained undecided.
A Talarico victory in November would deliver Democrats a Senate seat in Texas and narrow the Republican majority in Washington.
