Former Rep. Mike Rogers shows uneven strength against Democratic challengers in Michigan's Senate race, according to a new poll that lands just days before the state's Democratic primary.
The Glengariff Group survey, commissioned jointly by the Michigan Education Association and Business Leaders for Michigan, tested Rogers against both Democrats vying for the nomination to challenge him for the seat held by Sen. Gary Peters.
Against Abdul El-Sayed, Rogers holds a clear advantage—leading by 10 points in one hypothetical matchup and by seven points in another portion of the data.
The picture shifts when Rogers faces Rep. Haley Stevens. The poll shows the two running nearly even in one scenario and Rogers trailing Stevens in another.
A separate poll released shortly before the Democratic primary shows El-Sayed opening a double-digit lead over Stevens, a late surge that complicates the strategic math for both camps. Democratic primary voters must weigh El-Sayed's stronger primary standing against Stevens's tighter general-election numbers against Rogers.
For Rogers, an El-Sayed victory Tuesday clears a more direct path to the general election. A Stevens nomination means a harder fight.
National party committees on both sides view the Michigan seat as critical to Senate control, and the primary outcome will determine where each side directs its money.
