Bitcoin faces a potential drop to $43,500, according to Michael Terpin, founder of Transform Ventures. That target represents a 30 percent decline from Bitcoin's current trading level of $64,067.
Terpin calculates the $43,500 figure as a 66 percent fall from Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,100, recorded in Oct. 2025. Bitcoin has not traded at that level since early Feb. 2024.
Terpin—often called the "Godfather of Crypto"—is a veteran investor whose firm advised early-stage projects including Ethereum, Tether and WAX. He also served as an advisor to Mastercoin, the first initial coin offering in 2013.
Terpin believes the market still has "more pain to go" before a true bottom forms. He identifies capitulation as the key missing factor, pointing out that a defining hallmark of a market bottom is when prices do not immediately rebound.
He attributes consistent cycle misjudgments to trader greed. Referencing Bitcoin's previous cycle top in Nov. 2021, when the asset reached roughly $69,000, Terpin said many expected it to hit $100,000.
Terpin himself expected a "sweet spot" around $85,000 in 2021. He attributes Bitcoin's underperformance then to "bad macro" conditions, which he said have persisted for two consecutive cycles.
He said President Trump's tariffs and other factors contributed to market volatility during these periods. Despite those conditions, Bitcoin did reach $100,000 in Dec. 2024, a month after Trump secured his election victory.
Terpin dismisses the argument that institutional adoption and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs have altered Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle. He maintains that Bitcoin continues to follow its halving-driven patterns.
He directly counters the belief that institutional investors hold without selling. Institutions "absolutely sell," Terpin said, rejecting the notion that their involvement guarantees sustained upward price momentum.
Terpin also expressed caution about companies with substantial Bitcoin exposure. He specifically called out executive chairman Michael Saylor's aggressive accumulation strategy at MicroStrategy as an area of concern.
Bitcoin currently trades at $64,067, up 1.0 percent over the last 24 hours and 1.67 percent over the past 30 days.
